Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58324fc0b934417cd72f9c285335b7870125ee679cb82d00f8d28f7f1113bef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 1c | 699.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 537.25$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e5…b3edbacked Yes | 6c | 521.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 32c | 421.11$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.28 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 72c | 265.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 244.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.07 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 215$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 22c | 206.46$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 28c | 202.91$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 202.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 199.96$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 177.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 175.13$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 38c | 170.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 169.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 37c | 166.48$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 139.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…7075backed Yes | 23c | 138.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 75c | 133.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 118.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed No | 57c | 117.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 71c | 112.2$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked Yes | 30c | 106.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 28c | 105.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 15c | 95.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 33c | 93.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 14c | 90.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 74c | 79.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 72c | 78.13$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 49c | 77.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 28c | 75.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 46c | 74.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…00a7backed Yes | 28c | 72.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 72.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 29c | 71.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 72c | 71.14$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…85f2backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 28c | 62.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed Yes | 29c | 60.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 44c | 60.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 54.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786f…6674backed Yes | 25c | 54.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 53.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 21c | 52.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…79a5backed Yes | 20c | 52.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 39c | 50.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e6f1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 69c | 46.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 32c | 42.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 67c | 40.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…1af3backed No | 79c | 38.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…3dbfbacked Yes | 51c | 35.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 68c | 29.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 43c | 26.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 20.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 78c | 20.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked No | 74c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…e9acbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.