Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8933fc25af8bf619457f7cc9ea534e06248f87871f88b2487d9b4aeeaa41e97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,728
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed No | 3c | 357.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 115 | 19.1%22 W · 93 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 72c | 275.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.81 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 32c | 268.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 259.44$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 59c | 254$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.95 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 20c | 198.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.43 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 50c | 189.68$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 181.82$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5074…977bbacked Yes | 78c | 181.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 52cpaid | +47%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 170$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2c51backed Yes | 34c | 152.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 212 | 64.6%137 W · 75 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 146.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed Yes | 72c | 145.87$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.86 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x150a…b6b1backed No | 68c | 145.61$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -8.7wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 137.19$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 36c | 119.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 110.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a0…0c7abacked Yes | 29c | 105$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.55 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…053dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 71c | 97.31$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 50c | 95.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 94.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 91.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…c040backed Yes | 69c | 90.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 67c | 89.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 45c | 88.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 64c | 84.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 18c | 82.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 33c | 72.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 69.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…2dedbacked No | 79c | 64.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.26 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +227.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 63.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 63.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.77 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed No | 63c | 63.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 58.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 20c | 56.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 69c | 53.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 53.62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 53.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a9…ad8bbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 26c | 42.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 64c | 41.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…aef4backed Yes | 30c | 40.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 39.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7275…0225backed Yes | 33c | 39.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 75c | 39.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 29c | 38.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…8b13backed Yes | 28c | 37.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 66c | 34.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 33.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 32.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 31.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 26.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 24.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 80c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 58c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…a94abacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f8…4a32backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 77c | 19.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 14.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 39°C on July 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.