Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x584ca9db3c91e848484c833cd0c68649c0bbcf59c7228c3a554d128dd9dc1f74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 20c | 14,999$2,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,963.5 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 77c | 6,475$4,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.53 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa797…dedebacked Yes | 26c | 5,545$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.2 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 27c | 3,697$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.29 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Yes | 14c | 3,300$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.14 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 78c | 2,701$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.63 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Yes | 27c | 2,309$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.8 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 25c | 2,134$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.97 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4e…5c01backed No | 74c | 1,960$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 74c | 1,902$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 73c | 1,138$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.26 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.19 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66a…ed6abacked No | 76c | 943.04$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.68 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 861.83$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.08 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 69c | 831.5$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.77 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed Yes | 29c | 517.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 75c | 408.52$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.12 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 385.38$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed Yes | 26c | 378.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked Yes | 26c | 369.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 77c | 360$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed No | 74c | 338.61$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 71c | 284$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 74c | 272.94$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 23c | 249$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc39…398abacked Yes | 5c | 231.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca10backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 208$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 70c | 191.17$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f7…4f7cbacked Yes | 25c | 187.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 9c | 182.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Yes | 15c | 153.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | -11.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 73c | 133$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03fd…2cd4backed Yes | 27c | 115.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 105.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 24c | 102.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1082…48d3backed Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 73c | 85.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdb…bc1fbacked Yes | 28c | 70.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 56 | 76.8%43 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 24c | 62.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed No | 73c | 51.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…5dcebacked No | 75c | 40.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 85 | 68.2%58 W · 27 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 73c | 38.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 28.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed No | 79c | 26.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +32%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…5df1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 71c | 15.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution end in a draw?this page
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-08-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.