Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b5ea7f86479c3da11c1e0d12f32689dee232bc871c8b357dc432978b5215fa8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa797…dedebacked No | 42c | 6,041$2,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.96 | 146 | 57.5%84 W · 62 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 21c | 5,107$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.66 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 67c | 4,211$2,826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.65 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked No | 54c | 4,070$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.89 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed No | 54c | 3,720$2,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,026.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed No | 20c | 3,577$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.27 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 46c | 2,323$1,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,256.48 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 79c | 2,257$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.75 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 42c | 2,205$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.58 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Yes | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.99 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9c…b67dbacked Yes | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.97 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 69c | 1,588$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.06 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…53d2backed Yes | 59c | 1,001$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.29 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 55c | 910.66$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.86 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 65c | 773.12$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.34 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abe…84cebacked Yes | 48c | 630.26$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 52c | 571.21$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.53 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 12c | 551.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 57c | 505.77$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.15 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 42c | 331.33$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 54c | 302.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.02 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 45c | 284.83$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.66 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed No | 43c | 257.41$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 21c | 237.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…033ebacked No | 9c | 208.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…521bbacked No | 43c | 204.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…0000backed Yes | 62c | 204.5$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 50c | 202$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 57c | 192.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.85 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 8c | 188.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 177.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed No | 54c | 151.6$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 45c | 150$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 49c | 148$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 79c | 143.06$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 56c | 118.18$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…4040backed No | 54c | 114.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 139 | 52.5%73 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked No | 11c | 112$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 55c | 105.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…04d7backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 54c | 104$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Yes | 46c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed No | 54c | 86.89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed No | 29c | 83.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 82.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes | 59c | 81.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 45c | 70.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.46 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe458…8668backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaca…f5d5backed No | 56c | 63.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.56 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1082…48d3backed No | 51c | 57.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 51c | 53.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 53c | 53.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Yes | 46c | 52.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Yes | 59c | 51.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 55c | 51.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…69c8backed Yes | 34c | 50.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 46c | 44.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 57c | 41.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 57c | 41.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed No | 55c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 47c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 55c | 38.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Yes | 58c | 35.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Yes | 46c | 33.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 54c | 30.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eeb…a72cbacked No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Yes | 46c | 29.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 69c | 29.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…ce8bbacked No | 49c | 25.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +169%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db6…fa76backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 47c | 22.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 55c | 21.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Yes | 64c | 20.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked No | 55c | 18.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-08-15?this page
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-08-15?No won
- Will Toronto FC vs. New England Revolution end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.