TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Dayton Flyers vs. Duquesne Dukes

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dayton Flyersof Dayton Flyers, Duquesne Dukes
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e29…9e66backed Duquesne Dukes10c3,925$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.535520%11 W · 44 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Duquesne Dukes39c3,649$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.179845.9%45 W · 53 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Dayton Flyers61c2,864$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,125.112,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Dayton Flyers72c2,514$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.152,12450.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L+40.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Dayton Flyers59c1,546$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.861,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Dayton Flyers61c1,418$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.098749.4%43 W · 44 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Duquesne Dukes27c1,350$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.541,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x778d…cbe2backed Duquesne Dukes41c1,342$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.223135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Duquesne Dukes13c1,070$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.494036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Dayton Flyers61c1,048$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.351,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46f4…5bc0backed Duquesne Dukes38c1,040$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.22955.2%16 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Dayton Flyers69c958.73$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.532,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Dayton Flyers65c902.49$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.354,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Dayton Flyers59c792.59$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.722,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Duquesne Dukes39c740$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.65,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Duquesne Dukes20c685.14$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.171,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5165…175bbacked Duquesne Dukes11c498$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.299849%48 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Duquesne Dukes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Duquesne Dukes31c351.35$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.665,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Duquesne Dukes21c339.72$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.857335.6%204 W · 369 L-27.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Dayton Flyers61c326$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.141,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Duquesne Dukes40c299$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.672248.8%352 W · 370 L-23.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Duquesne Dukes38c247.5$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1812,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89fd…da5dbacked Duquesne Dukes31c237.28$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.233339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Dayton Flyers57c217.4$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4839744.8%178 W · 219 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Dayton Flyers63c214$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.1849043.1%211 W · 279 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Duquesne Dukes34c200$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681,48743%639 W · 848 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Dayton Flyers75c185.27$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.88937.1%33 W · 56 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Dayton Flyers61c163.92$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9250546.9%237 W · 268 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34ca…9de7backed Dayton Flyers62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.2913561.5%83 W · 52 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Dayton Flyers79c150$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5245644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Dayton Flyers79c150$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7532343%139 W · 184 L-18.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Duquesne Dukes12c143.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.974,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Duquesne Dukes42c120$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.457448.3%277 W · 297 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd77d…b01cbacked Duquesne Dukes43c116.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018851.6%97 W · 91 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a64…6769backed Duquesne Dukes43c116.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017950.8%91 W · 88 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea0…a726backed Duquesne Dukes15c110.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-70.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0d67backed Duquesne Dukes22c105.38$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0418241.2%75 W · 107 L-6.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd737…d351backed Duquesne Dukes34c103.88$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Dayton Flyers59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4127048.1%130 W · 140 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfc…860cbacked Dayton Flyers75c96.91$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa03…1242backed Duquesne Dukes13c95.83$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5a4…7602backed Dayton Flyers68c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Duquesne Dukes39c68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.522,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Duquesne Dukes33c58.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4699045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Duquesne Dukes41c51.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.192,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Duquesne Dukes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.589146.2%412 W · 479 L+9.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bd8…5c53backed Dayton Flyers59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.52250%11 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0187…161cbacked Dayton Flyers80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10966.7%6 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick78cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e21…7defbacked Duquesne Dukes24c42.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-60%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0bb9…84babacked Dayton Flyers66c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.91872.2%13 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Dayton Flyers67c34.28$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.366831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Duquesne Dukes41c30.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…7f6abacked Dayton Flyers64c25.44$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.161631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-44.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f04…ecb3backed Dayton Flyers80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57100%7 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b91…82edbacked Dayton Flyers65c22.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.951764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.