Fifa International · resolved market
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58cdebb649a5e71c2be9766f20b052d7bb60fe312e090b6ee3cc09fa59537202
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf1a…ba1ebacked No | 66c | 4,187$2,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,764.02 | 343 | 57.7%198 W · 145 L | +26.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 34c | 2,285$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.71 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 34c | 1,243$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.15 | 201 | 86.1%173 W · 28 L | +46.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc843…32b7backed Yes | 32c | 1,036$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.78 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…e917backed Yes | 32c | 1,030$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.4 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…baddbacked No | 68c | 999.98$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.98 | 311 | 71.4%222 W · 89 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…d448backed No | 68c | 825.73$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.41 | 464 | 64.9%301 W · 163 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4efe…d987backed Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…3c2fbacked No | 68c | 577.29$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.77 | 327 | 65.7%215 W · 112 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 68c | 500$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 68c | 458.44$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.74 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f68…3e9cbacked Yes | 34c | 306.05$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.99 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…9179backed Yes | 33c | 283.06$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.67 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 69c | 120.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…99e2backed Yes | 34c | 115.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 212 | 50.9%108 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 57c | 92.94$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.96 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…36dbbacked Yes | 33c | 91.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 120 | 36.7%44 W · 76 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 70c | 80.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3852…e3a8backed Yes | 30c | 65.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.62 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…f151backed Yes | 34c | 58.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 32c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 238 | 38.7%92 W · 146 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…2858backed No | 69c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bad…4e22backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d8…cf06backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed No | 70c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 22.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 208 | 60.6%126 W · 82 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 68c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…f895backed No | 77c | 14.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Folarin Balogun: 1+ goalsthis page
- Christian Pulisic: 1+ assistsYes won
- Christian Pulisic: 1+ goalsNo won
- Christian Pulisic: 2+ goalsNo won
- Christian Pulisic: 3+ shotsNo won
- Julio César Enciso: 1+ shotsYes won
- Julio César Enciso: 2+ shotsYes won
- Malik Tillman: 1+ goalsNo won
- Weston McKennie: 1+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.