Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ea8d193b048eeba015149a400a1347a9b4362c6ed510a0d80472db63b374e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,721$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.49 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed No | 69c | 394.29$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.06 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 58c | 306.64$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.34 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 280.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 71c | 250$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.5 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 71c | 241.48$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.45 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 232.97$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 29c | 207.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.43 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 39c | 170.51$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 52c | 153.65$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 10c | 129.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 101.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 100.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked No | 53c | 93.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 71.47$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 70.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…83f2backed Yes | 30c | 67.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 58.66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 74c | 50.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 28c | 48.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 29c | 48.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 78c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 74c | 46.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 65c | 46.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 71c | 42.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 64c | 41.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…90d5backed No | 55c | 35.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 43c | 34.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 66c | 34.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 45c | 28.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 73c | 24.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed No | 57c | 21.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…35c9backed Yes | 75c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 75c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…d865backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.