Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–216 votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5921ed37d4bd33a1ea6c460997ae9549abd4f0d467fed8fca4732c7a35614a79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 677.25$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.94 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 11c | 411$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 399.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 37c | 392.29$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 12c | 378.54$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 11c | 255.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 52c | 219.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 202.26$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 24c | 192.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…9616backed No | 70c | 179$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 29c | 161$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 29c | 139.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 52c | 112.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 72c | 107.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…b48cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2b…4602backed No | 70c | 92.58$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 41c | 63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 70c | 58.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…8b0abacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 77c | 52.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1784…7a77backed No | 70c | 32.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fd…71a5backed No | 71c | 32.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–216 votes?this page
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive 213–214 votes?No won
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive 217–218 votes?Yes won
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive 219 or more votes?No won
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive fewer than 213 votes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.