Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Reconciliation bill receive 219 or more votes?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9face23ffd55a7691c388fc789fbfdc34cb13279af54f74a266fccec5fd9817
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 5c | 4,828$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.03 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,173$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.94 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,105$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.11 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 12c | 2,034$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 10c | 1,655$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.81 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85a…6230backed Yes | 4c | 1,490$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,229$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,122$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked No | 77c | 949.99$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.45per pick | 78cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb642…10adbacked Yes | 39c | 702.39$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 20c | 500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 18c | 464.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 14c | 309.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.96 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 47c | 255.42$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2279…d2f8backed Yes | 57c | 174.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 78c | 160$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 68c | 150$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 18c | 99.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…c3bebacked Yes | 21c | 95.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 24c | 83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 20c | 72.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 27c | 71.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec55…01ccbacked Yes | 21c | 63.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…c4c1backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive 219 or more votes?this page
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive 213–214 votes?No won
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive 215–216 votes?No won
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive 217–218 votes?Yes won
- Will the Reconciliation bill receive fewer than 213 votes?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.