NFL · resolved market
Big Game: Coin Toss Team Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x599c9024fb43858f91c90a5b444fdc93eba5d82489145bba746981bec49afdc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NEof NE, SEA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $218,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0ec…f78dbacked NE | 50c | 97,904$48,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,952 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdc…cc11backed SEA | 50c | 97,904$48,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,952 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed NE | 58c | 11,736$6,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,927.43 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked SEA | 49c | 9,757$4,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,781.11 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…aaf9backed SEA | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7476…d670backed SEA | 6c | 1,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359f…fa80backed SEA | 4c | 1,500$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +425.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked NE | 49c | 1,311$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.62 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…910abacked SEA | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd607…6ddcbacked SEA | 6c | 800$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 7cpaid | +216%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked NE | 50c | 483.43$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.72 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf50d…7ba8backed SEA | 7c | 400$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 7cpaid | +216%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ed…4a93backed NE | 49c | 311.44$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked SEA | 14c | 290$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8333…eb93backed SEA | 49c | 220.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked NE | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc87e…3616backed SEA | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd73…3cc4backed NE | 51c | 147.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked NE | 51c | 101.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…c0e2backed SEA | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…77ccbacked SEA | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 130 | 24.6%32 W · 98 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd20…f08fbacked NE | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2266…138abacked NE | 50c | 91.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…e1dbbacked NE | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…0f3abacked SEA | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…bb74backed SEA | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed SEA | 49c | 70.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed SEA | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…d145backed NE | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…649dbacked SEA | 51c | 42.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…63f5backed SEA | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c6…c338backed SEA | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…a950backed NE | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…c669backed NE | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…d85dbacked SEA | 50c | 31.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04f…7714backed SEA | 50c | 29.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…61aabacked SEA | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed NE | 50c | 22.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61a…e637backed NE | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x359e…6a0fbacked SEA | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f2…7c7dbacked NE | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.