Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59acb66d3634aaf748efb40cf3ba2f5ff422e4088e59ee846e2eea3463bf63cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3de5…00ccbacked No | 55c | 361.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 45c | 349.85$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.81 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 54c | 255.7$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.11 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 58c | 171.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.42 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 51c | 165.01$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.89 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 33c | 152.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.2 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 61c | 149.97$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 67c | 145.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 143.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 41c | 111.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 25c | 107.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1890…d328backed Yes | 44c | 92.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 66c | 88.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 52c | 77.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 76.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 75.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 35c | 71.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 33c | 69.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 65.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 64c | 63.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…28edbacked Yes | 49c | 61.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 49c | 61.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…727fbacked No | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 47c | 58.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb56a…e658backed Yes | 35c | 57.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 57.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 62c | 56.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 47c | 55.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…dd31backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 32c | 49.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd2…8772backed Yes | 66c | 46.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 56c | 44.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…8cc4backed Yes | 28c | 43.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 29c | 41.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 51c | 41.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 40.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 38c | 40.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 29c | 38.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2401…0753backed No | 58c | 35.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 66c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd87…5eb3backed Yes | 70c | 28.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 58c | 25.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…5c2abacked Yes | 68c | 25.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…23d5backed Yes | 48c | 24.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 65c | 24.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 23.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 45c | 23.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 57c | 22.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3e…2323backed No | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…a5d4backed Yes | 66c | 21.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 70c | 20.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 75c | 20.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…ae14backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf28…72aabacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66d5…147abacked Yes | 68c | 16.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 74c | 13.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or higher on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 14°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.