Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59bdaefc0ec97a692c0ca9d85e7fb252359509dd542f466541dabce0a6aa50b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 5c | 1,953$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.28 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 30c | 619.74$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.64 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 64c | 313.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.54 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 291.73$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 223.87$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 36c | 165$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.71 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 155.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 64c | 147.11$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 11c | 144$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 123.94$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.98 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 74c | 108.6$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 64c | 103$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 46c | 100.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 95.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 34c | 83.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.31 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 35c | 82.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 32c | 79.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 77.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 15c | 72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 70.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 36c | 67.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 36c | 67.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 36c | 67.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 67c | 66.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 60.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 42c | 57.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 63c | 55.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 54.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 48.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 48.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 66c | 46.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 45.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 65c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 45c | 44.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 66c | 43.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 33c | 42.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 26c | 40.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 40.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebd…ae71backed Yes | 33c | 40.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 36c | 39.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 35c | 37.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 68c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 67c | 36.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 34c | 32.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 30.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 41c | 30.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a63…0e48backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc169…0657backed Yes | 36c | 29.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 42c | 24.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 66c | 23.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 63c | 16.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a8…7493backed No | 63c | 16.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 66c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 66c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.