Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs. Xtreme Gaming
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a18e5990804d317e08f532ef548a2c276f37622cef60d828bcf5b7c1dfafff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Team Spirit, Xtreme Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6304…e570backed Xtreme Gaming | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,649.99 | 276 | 45.3%125 W · 151 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Team Spirit | 72c | 4,936$3,542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,542.44 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Team Spirit | 67c | 4,233$2,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,836.11 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33a4…3f65backed Team Spirit | 5c | 3,032$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 2,696$1,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Xtreme Gaming | 31c | 1,739$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,206.11 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Xtreme Gaming | 30c | 1,675$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.55 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbb…050cbacked Team Spirit | 69c | 1,614$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Team Spirit | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 1,476$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.04 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Xtreme Gaming | 29c | 1,303$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.37 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7116…b487backed Team Spirit | 71c | 1,300$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.98 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…530ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 1,088$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.02 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Xtreme Gaming | 33c | 869.61$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.33 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 699$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.65 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 536 | 52.6%282 W · 254 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…4bf1backed Team Spirit | 73c | 457.18$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…613abacked Team Spirit | 28c | 349.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a2…e231backed Team Spirit | 71c | 314.98$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.24 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Team Spirit | 68c | 312.64$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…1434backed Team Spirit | 54c | 245$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…c0dabacked Xtreme Gaming | 30c | 230.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.69 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c5…cba8backed Team Spirit | 6c | 220$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1f…81a1backed Team Spirit | 29c | 217.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed Xtreme Gaming | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3810…b5e6backed Team Spirit | 70c | 198$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…3b02backed Team Spirit | 69c | 172.51$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 36c | 171.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Spirit | 48c | 170.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.46 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Team Spirit | 69c | 138.62$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82c6…2e59backed Team Spirit | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…9decbacked Team Spirit | 73c | 135.62$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Xtreme Gaming | 29c | 125$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.75 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85d…6832backed Team Spirit | 10c | 113.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d17…b1fdbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Team Spirit | 39c | 40.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 393 | 51.1%201 W · 192 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5a…5787backed Team Spirit | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Xtreme Gaming | 38c | 39.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…51d1backed Xtreme Gaming | 43c | 34.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed Team Spirit | 70c | 31.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa52…48cdbacked Team Spirit | 39c | 29.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a71…f9c9backed Team Spirit | 70c | 28.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1caf…7e6abacked Team Spirit | 61c | 25.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e2…35c7backed Team Spirit | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.