Ukraine · resolved market
Ukraine strike on Moscow before November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a7eca35458fbb8916753f03f8ed38994869780e6a481b7b06a34b1d6e62449d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,319
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,802
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,319 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 2c | 5,701$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.1 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 78c | 5,063$3,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 14c | 4,687$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.55 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df6…f635backed No | 79c | 3,974$3,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed Yes | 21c | 3,423$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.69 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d4b6backed Yes | 30c | 1,677$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.26per pick | 58cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf750…f162backed Yes | 3c | 1,531$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 25cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 1,147$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…2480backed Yes | 17c | 1,146$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 6c | 1,132$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed Yes | 30c | 1,058$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.78 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…37c8backed Yes | 18c | 1,040$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.39 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 980.71$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.25 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 16c | 862.85$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.38 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked Yes | 20c | 854$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 14c | 778.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6497…558cbacked Yes | 17c | 693.33$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…91aabacked Yes | 80c | 687.33$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 664.81$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.54 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…d7ecbacked Yes | 22c | 636$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…376dbacked Yes | 4c | 619.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 13c | 604.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c91…edd8backed Yes | 4c | 526.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…1f75backed Yes | 19c | 499.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5c…9c16backed Yes | 22c | 430.35$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 34c | 423.25$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.78 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4286…df49backed Yes | 23c | 390.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 3c | 374.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 27c | 370$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 12c | 314.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…719ebacked Yes | 21c | 267.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x790c…033cbacked Yes | 39c | 258.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…2ec7backed No | 61c | 237.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f61…c8aabacked Yes | 9c | 209.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b2…4e48backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 199.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fd6dbacked No | 65c | 187.53$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b15…e7c9backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…2a21backed Yes | 22c | 147$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe531…f0a4backed No | 71c | 140.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…0213backed Yes | 24c | 118.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.34per pick | 48cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1043backed Yes | 10c | 100.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2e3bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd9…8327backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…40cfbacked Yes | 24c | 84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccc…aa43backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f2…20cdbacked Yes | 13c | 81.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cd…4273backed No | 55c | 69.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…2821backed No | 72c | 69.18$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8e…70d6backed Yes | 17c | 66.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 26c | 64.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…aa28backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddc…a7f7backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c33…c968backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb21…a1b1backed No | 77c | 38.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…3acebacked No | 75c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed No | 47c | 23.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f56…ccd7backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 35cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f56…576fbacked No | 79c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.