NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Thunder
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ab31de882066a59686b14f668477f8876373ea7787453e350d1104781966ff4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Jazz, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $181,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $181,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x008a…21a8backed Jazz | 11c | 12,836$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.86 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…dbf6backed Jazz | 0c | 12,833$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…f6dbbacked Jazz | 9c | 10,925$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Jazz | 14c | 10,458$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.42 | 498 | 49.4%246 W · 252 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98c…acb2backed Jazz | 5c | 7,982$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.09 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Jazz | 11c | 6,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Jazz | 11c | 5,912$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.45 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Jazz | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d0…2368backed Jazz | 12c | 4,167$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…13c9backed Jazz | 9c | 4,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 235 | 48.1%113 W · 122 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Jazz | 9c | 3,922$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.14 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997b…801ebacked Jazz | 10c | 3,900$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.99 | 461 | 31%143 W · 318 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Jazz | 15c | 3,526$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.24 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Jazz | 0c | 2,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Jazz | 6c | 2,289$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.33 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa715…15e2backed Jazz | 4c | 2,200$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Jazz | 10c | 1,769$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.47 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 9c | 1,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa32b…e132backed Jazz | 11c | 1,075$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.98 | 110 | 35.5%39 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Jazz | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed Thunder | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bd…dce0backed Jazz | 11c | 835$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 777 | 45%350 W · 427 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…5374backed Jazz | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f7…4ec4backed Jazz | 12c | 750$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e8…1a53backed Jazz | 12c | 750$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Jazz | 20c | 743.4$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.68 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Jazz | 7c | 700$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Jazz | 9c | 653.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 290 | 43.8%127 W · 163 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Jazz | 8c | 633.16$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Jazz | 14c | 590.97$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…4eacbacked Jazz | 5c | 579.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Jazz | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…d9ebbacked Jazz | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Jazz | 8c | 499.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…141ebacked Jazz | 12c | 490.2$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 21.1%23 W · 86 L | -10.5wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…0dfabacked Jazz | 12c | 483.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9cf8backed Jazz | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…516cbacked Jazz | 11c | 399.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…cf4cbacked Jazz | 10c | 326.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec2…826bbacked Jazz | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e42…f833backed Jazz | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Jazz | 10c | 254.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…3eedbacked Jazz | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 277 | 35.4%98 W · 179 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd58f…e787backed Jazz | 10c | 212$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Jazz | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,197 | 46.7%559 W · 638 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…7359backed Jazz | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…af06backed Jazz | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Jazz | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 855 | 42%359 W · 496 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Jazz | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…d0d5backed Jazz | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5679…d458backed Jazz | 11c | 189.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 156 | 46.2%72 W · 84 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…e94ebacked Jazz | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe555…782fbacked Jazz | 11c | 163.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Jazz | 10c | 155$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…0bd2backed Jazz | 13c | 153.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -12.1wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb118…da1ebacked Jazz | 10c | 151.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…cd66backed Jazz | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Jazz | 10c | 138.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 269 | 33.5%90 W · 179 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…f97ebacked Jazz | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Jazz | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ab…0a40backed Jazz | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…2e85backed Jazz | 9c | 118$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7220…a3a1backed Jazz | 15c | 101.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f30…1379backed Jazz | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed Thunder | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 407 | 26%106 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Jazz | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 302 | 43.7%132 W · 170 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…df9dbacked Jazz | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…fc67backed Jazz | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.28per pick | 57cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab59…ea9abacked Jazz | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2650backed Jazz | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Jazz | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 276 | 42%116 W · 160 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…59f2backed Jazz | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd6…4e24backed Jazz | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…f7dcbacked Jazz | 11c | 95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…4d8ebacked Jazz | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…61a1backed Jazz | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.