Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac5809783c4926a34ee1e852e7c540a1b25434e326291429328f60d3dfb0856
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,489
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 826.23$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.82 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 66c | 563.4$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.85 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 34c | 532.32$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.74 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 74c | 398.07$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.96 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 30c | 303.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.63 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 74c | 291.64$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.81 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 274.11$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 245.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.62 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 73c | 224.61$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.61 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 180.9$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 176.27$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.73 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 43c | 170$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d0…158abacked Yes | 22c | 144.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 138.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 121.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.43 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 121.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 13c | 118.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.31 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 112$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 68c | 111.75$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.92 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 23c | 109.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 106.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 103.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 102.07$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 93.49$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 88.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b79…49c5backed No | 80c | 82.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 79cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 22c | 81.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 78c | 79.81$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 27c | 68.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 66.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 77c | 64.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 32c | 60.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 65c | 59.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…89a4backed Yes | 22c | 54.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 74c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 49.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.64 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…e154backed Yes | 26c | 47.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 29c | 44.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 38c | 39.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 77c | 36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…79a9backed No | 72c | 33.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 31.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 78c | 31.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 28.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 50c | 24.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 23.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 60c | 22.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 77c | 19.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 79c | 16.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 76c | 14.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 76c | 13.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 69°F or below on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.