Asian League · resolved market
Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ad875f08caf008b536f2a060264cae717e268afc5c610d59ebd962a8eb4bfe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,345
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,345 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 75c | 3,149$2,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.68 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 31c | 1,013$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.18 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 33c | 500.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked Yes | 28c | 478.81$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.38 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +42%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 80c | 376.03$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 72c | 330.43$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.97 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 75c | 326.1$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 31c | 258.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -9.6wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 25c | 243.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 19c | 238.11$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 71c | 231.13$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.01 | 304 | 64.8%197 W · 107 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Yes | 23c | 207.17$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -49%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Yes | 32c | 204.81$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 21c | 204.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 24c | 172.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 30c | 158.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…7204backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 24c | 147.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 271 | 48%130 W · 141 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1d…d05ebacked Yes | 13c | 123.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 28cpaid | +187.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 79c | 118.24$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed Yes | 16c | 112.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 23c | 111.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 79c | 105.34$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005a…1349backed No | 70c | 95.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 76c | 94.16$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 30c | 81.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 69c | 74.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5e…f319backed Yes | 31c | 69.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 30c | 69.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…8974backed Yes | 22c | 67.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8b…276abacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…aadebacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 70c | 57.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 68c | 51.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 98 | 42.9%42 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Yes | 31c | 50.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -43%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Yes | 27c | 44.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…b7b5backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…3d84backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 30.1%53 W · 123 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…20b4backed No | 77c | 20.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd098…c290backed No | 68c | 16.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Machida Zelvia win on 2026-05-22?Yes won
- Will Urawa Red Diamonds win on 2026-05-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.