TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,157

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,400 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ae0…7483backed Yes43c1,817$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.5910539%41 W · 64 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes38c1,713$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.231,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No59c634.54$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.1958152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes37c470.78$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.758,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c320$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.45,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No51c287.84$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.2112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes41c225.14$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.8563538.4%244 W · 391 L+12.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No61c210$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.84,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes43c209.62$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No59c206.49$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.833,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1142,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes28c190.77$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.541,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No61c189$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8271649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed Yes41c179.25$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.175546.1%348 W · 407 L-32.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e3…5296backed Yes29c171.56$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5620339.9%81 W · 122 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed No61c169.46$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.571,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No71c152.12$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.624,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No62c148.43$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.491,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes28c140.52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.874,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7522645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c118$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.385,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x418a…64c0backed No59c111$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.495343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No60c107.43$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe396…dce1backed No67c102.67$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4223666.1%156 W · 80 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No69c97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.881,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed Yes29c93.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.311,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No35c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.24,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No60c86$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.22,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No58c84.48$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x847c…9ff8backed No73c82.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022550.2%113 W · 112 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes67c82.17$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7815051.3%77 W · 73 L+12.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes34c80$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.61,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes30c76.13$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.639,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No58c73.03$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc266…383bbacked Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…6983backed Yes27c66.14$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.1487437.3%326 W · 548 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No70c65.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.21,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf745…bf49backed Yes42c64.41$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.296237.1%23 W · 39 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No42c59.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.191,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes27c55.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.751,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef98…b586backed Yes27c55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1590734.5%313 W · 594 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No55c54.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes36c54.68$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes31c52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.882,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes30c51.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3624141.9%101 W · 140 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No23c51.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.676,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No68c50.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.682,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes41c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.751,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8174…be40backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.557948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.548743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4476…c5fcbacked No61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.542547.5%202 W · 223 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…e17ebacked No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.527248.9%133 W · 139 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes37c50$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5357747%271 W · 306 L+40.0wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+16.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x989e…aa30backed No59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.514745.6%67 W · 80 L-7.5wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.53,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed Yes41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c49.19$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8980050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes36c48.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.8330332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f20…7163backed Yes37c47.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.7635325.5%90 W · 263 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes75c46.79$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7920833.2%69 W · 139 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No54c45.03$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.321,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed Yes41c43.17$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3742148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No64c40$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.690555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No70c39.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.787,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x45d7…f207backed No63c39.68$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-63.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes27c38.77$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.322,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No71c38.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes50c33.45$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.7335137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed Yes40c31.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7622853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No65c30.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2045675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes35c30.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.942,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes40c30.01$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.653855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x047b…83b1backed No59c29.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5413452.2%70 W · 64 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes41c29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2520842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No63c28.7$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.012,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes62c24.22$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2261676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x6122…7b8fbacked No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.29053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.452758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No74c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.829354.3%159 W · 134 L-25.6wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-15.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc196…4af6backed No60c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9727056.7%153 W · 117 L-1.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.463,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No61c19.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1915961.6%98 W · 61 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa343…68d8backed No56c18.36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.281338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No57c17.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.242,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ad…dfbdbacked No64c16.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.851675%12 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+27.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No67c16.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3864859.1%383 W · 265 L-21.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes78c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.8610758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.