Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d5d38b538072ad338d155312b3235419654e4278fd057d369ae2140ee67f611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 32c | 1,918$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.29 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 386.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 70c | 350$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 1,266 | 52.8%668 W · 598 L | -14.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 289.01$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 5,542 | 47.8%2,649 W · 2,893 L | +81.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 251.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 212.68$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.9 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 210$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 35c | 204$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 196.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 180.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 1,144 | 24.7%283 W · 861 L | +26.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 180.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 168.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2,272 | 14.8%336 W · 1,936 L | +52.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 79c | 155$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 9c | 149.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 934 | 61.8%577 W · 357 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 78c | 142.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 24c | 127.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 118$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 102.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 13c | 82.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 31c | 81.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 2,415 | 57.9%1,399 W · 1,016 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 76.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 72.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 1,253 | 58.2%729 W · 524 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 69.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 4,302 | 53.5%2,303 W · 1,999 L | +157.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…bf49backed Yes | 27c | 62.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 25c | 62.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 24c | 62.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 60.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 22c | 55.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1,908 | 55.6%1,060 W · 848 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 69c | 54.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -26.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 32c | 54.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc29…66b4backed No | 62c | 53.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 52.12$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked Yes | 23c | 51.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 50.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2,628 | 54%1,419 W · 1,209 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 50.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 2,318 | 58.9%1,365 W · 953 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 575 | 57.7%332 W · 243 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 46.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 30c | 46.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 28c | 45.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,406 | 30.9%435 W · 971 L | -93.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 78c | 45.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 1,612 | 60.4%974 W · 638 L | -22.0wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 65c | 37.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 37.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…52e2backed No | 78c | 33.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 33.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…2a3ebacked Yes | 30c | 33.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…6c1ebacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 106 | 71.7%76 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 70c | 31.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 916 | 55.9%512 W · 404 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 43c | 30.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 72c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 29.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 216 | 72.2%156 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 26.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 77c | 24.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 3,190 | 53.7%1,712 W · 1,478 L | -98.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 20.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2,180 | 57%1,243 W · 937 L | +73.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51f…24e8backed No | 70c | 19.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 69c | 19.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.