Ligue 1 · resolved market
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae6afb8e5dde9bf7b0e6639d203f3d3c70578a0d86721432365ae1620106605
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 32c | 5,578$1,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,784.84 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 13c | 4,027$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.32 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb585…53edbacked Under | 76c | 2,617$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.61 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 2,533$1,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.97 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 21c | 1,390$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.13 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 68c | 460$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 68c | 323.4$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.49 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…7d97backed Under | 66c | 260.61$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.61 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…1186backed Under | 68c | 199.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +4.9wins | +0.27per pick | 62cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Over | 34c | 146.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…8f84backed Under | 71c | 140.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Over | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 68c | 93.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 32c | 91.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 32c | 82.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…2decbacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…4ccdbacked Under | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 68c | 18.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 125 | 56%70 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddc…6ebabacked Under | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5this page
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 1.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 2.5Under won
- Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Stade Brestois 29 won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Stade Brestois 29 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.