TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ligue 1 · resolved market

Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Stade Brestois 29of Paris Saint-Germain FC, Stade Brestois 29
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$63,708
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,123

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,708 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd684…f320backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c29,999$18,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,899.174045%18 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Stade Brestois 2944c27,082$11,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,285.81,91645.5%872 W · 1,044 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e5b…b940backed Paris Saint-Germain FC47c8,000$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,749.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Stade Brestois 2937c5,667$2,085 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,581.6816644.6%74 W · 92 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Stade Brestois 2937c4,628$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,916.0452550.1%263 W · 262 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb7b…3051backed Paris Saint-Germain FC64c4,205$2,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,682.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Stade Brestois 2947c2,218$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.3322745.8%104 W · 123 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Stade Brestois 2937c1,883$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.287344.3%387 W · 486 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635e…0438backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c1,840$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.21850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Stade Brestois 2937c1,773$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.1926354%142 W · 121 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66e5…d3c7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c1,254$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f5…c161backed Paris Saint-Germain FC48c1,250$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4844…32c9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c1,087$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6853141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Stade Brestois 2937c1,024$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6451,41540.8%577 W · 838 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c1,005$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.2610145.5%46 W · 55 L-0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceee…d39ebacked Stade Brestois 2937c1,000$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6303441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Stade Brestois 2937c960$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.812647.6%60 W · 66 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59e9…1010backed Stade Brestois 2956c811.75$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75fc…0a4cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC25c754$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.81723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Stade Brestois 2936c673.71$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.17875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+42.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Stade Brestois 2937c557.22$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.0512963.6%82 W · 47 L+12.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Stade Brestois 2953c520.49$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.351643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198f…c419backed Stade Brestois 2937c506.71$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.225947.5%28 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Stade Brestois 2979c464.39$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8912448.4%60 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Stade Brestois 2937c463.73$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.524753.2%25 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC48c375$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1809641.7%40 W · 56 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Stade Brestois 2941c370.67$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.378644.2%38 W · 48 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad7c…6244backed Paris Saint-Germain FC42c346.99$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Stade Brestois 2959c340.05$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3733145%149 W · 182 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Stade Brestois 2953c332.98$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.58041.3%33 W · 47 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Stade Brestois 2938c328.95$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.952441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c299.97$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.9830448%146 W · 158 L-10.7wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Stade Brestois 2937c297.65$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5212367.5%83 W · 40 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick58cpaid+21.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9006…385abacked Paris Saint-Germain FC64c276$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.642445.8%11 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-28.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd41b…f231backed Stade Brestois 2943c274.42$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.422142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Stade Brestois 2937c259.38$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.419960.6%60 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cff…cc09backed Stade Brestois 2977c252.15$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23bc…5487backed Stade Brestois 2937c248.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.873357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Stade Brestois 2937c231$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.538143.2%35 W · 46 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Stade Brestois 2937c229$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.1546450.4%234 W · 230 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c216.12$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.162832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb66c…a0f5backed Stade Brestois 2937c211.53$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.614951%25 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x113f…95a6backed Paris Saint-Germain FC48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002944.8%13 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Stade Brestois 2950c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10014544.8%65 W · 80 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f84…67efbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC47c199.99$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.996529.2%19 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x227c…b8c3backed Paris Saint-Germain FC41c195.32$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.712245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Stade Brestois 2937c186.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.447861.5%48 W · 30 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe881…fb3dbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC63c177.83$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa875…9f99backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfead…75bcbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC58c157.88$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked Stade Brestois 2961c150.82$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52e…0a1cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC63c125.4$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$791154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Paris Saint-Germain FC47c118.03$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4826046.2%120 W · 140 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Stade Brestois 2950c114$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.3wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+30.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Stade Brestois 2936c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$648250%41 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Stade Brestois 2950c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5013144.3%58 W · 73 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Stade Brestois 2937c98.59$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.11825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Stade Brestois 2938c94.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7912556%70 W · 55 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e1…f5a9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c80$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe569…e759backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.29per pick51cpaid-64.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x041e…bc83backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Paris Saint-Germain FC64c78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9222927.5%63 W · 166 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC42c76.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.914352.4%75 W · 68 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x014c…38ccbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC64c76.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.733363.6%21 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+13.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Stade Brestois 2942c71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.236759.7%40 W · 27 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Stade Brestois 2937c66.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.724440.9%18 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Stade Brestois 2937c56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.123764.9%24 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Stade Brestois 2947c53.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.783764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Stade Brestois 2937c53.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.956065%39 W · 21 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC40c51.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.555955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3aa7…303dbacked Stade Brestois 2947c51.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.953354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a0…ed3cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC52c48.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9310…5e55backed Stade Brestois 2938c47.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.376248.4%30 W · 32 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+25.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Stade Brestois 2939c47.28$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0418351.4%94 W · 89 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Paris Saint-Germain FC43c43.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6117817.4%31 W · 147 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-34.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Paris Saint-Germain FC63c42.79$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.969657.3%55 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6119…346ebacked Paris Saint-Germain FC47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd354…5aa9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC48c41.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9787…37dfbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC33c41.64$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.742138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b9f…0de7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC30c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Paris Saint-Germain FC47c39.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Stade Brestois 2937c37.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.3827748.7%135 W · 142 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed5…2aa3backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c36.51$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e3e…4781backed Stade Brestois 2939c36.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.32100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+113%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Stade Brestois 2967c36.16$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1248649%238 W · 248 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32b5…b692backed Stade Brestois 2937c32.42$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.421844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c8a…23d0backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e8f…16e1backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c31.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb63a…7637backed Paris Saint-Germain FC64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203268.8%22 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b9…118ebacked Stade Brestois 2953c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.16256.5%35 W · 27 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e7…7cb7backed Paris Saint-Germain FC63c29.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.893158.1%18 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Paris Saint-Germain FC62c29.61$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.361553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Stade Brestois 2952c29.34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.232777.8%21 W · 6 L+4.6wins+0.17per pick61cpaid+22.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1813…4dfebacked Stade Brestois 2953c27.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0311753.8%63 W · 54 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x90c8…4573backed Stade Brestois 2977c27.4$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb305…a400backed Paris Saint-Germain FC48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-53.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3711…7339backed Stade Brestois 2948c21.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.051566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Stade Brestois 2948c20.95$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.933554.3%19 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.