NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae884b347fbf39ee757265f357c593699edeae319d6b23098ca48f3e6a4e818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 10,659$5,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,252.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 8,000$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,950 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 50c | 6,719$3,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,327.04 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 50c | 4,755$2,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,367.22 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 4,144$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072.15 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 4,004$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,969.76 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 50c | 1,680$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.78 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Over | 49c | 1,640$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$830.85 | 435 | 43.4%189 W · 246 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,531$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 1,459$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.99 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 1,134$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.22 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Over | 49c | 709$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.59 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 52c | 578$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 577.99$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 49c | 368.29$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.53 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 241.22$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.02 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 206.88$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.22 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…2080backed Over | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 248 | 50%124 W · 124 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…57c8backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Under | 51c | 145.88$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 357 | 47.1%168 W · 189 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c1…3d1ebacked Under | 50c | 126$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Under | 49c | 122.35$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 51c | 118.85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 51c | 117.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49f0…df87backed Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Over | 49c | 61.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 54.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345b…8cbdbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.21per pick | 44cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Under | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1c…c085backed Over | 52c | 27.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 48c | 27.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Under | 50c | 24.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Under | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Mavericks won
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Hornets vs. MavericksHornets won
- Hornets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.