NBA · resolved market
Hornets vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x975621be90c490c6517b489c83a95d8e9df208b6746106785565ea88a4da72f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe887…c006backed Over | 47c | 6,489$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,439.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 4,341$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,340.91 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45de…cd38backed Under | 53c | 2,400$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 55c | 2,094$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.7 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf5…e228backed Under | 53c | 2,089$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa502…4625backed Under | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under | 52c | 994.3$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.82 | 807 | 37.7%304 W · 503 L | -33.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 49c | 907$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.57 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 58c | 900$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 51c | 725$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.75 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 42c | 497.84$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.75 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 459.71$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.66 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 56c | 418$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.99 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8778…73febacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 67c | 269.48$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.87 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8567…56a3backed Under | 36c | 260.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a4…3117backed Under | 10c | 241.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 286 | 16.4%47 W · 239 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 50c | 190.87$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.38 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 51c | 182$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 8c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 46c | 130.42$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 122.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 50c | 121.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…043cbacked Over | 48c | 112.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 55c | 108$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 104$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 52c | 99.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 54c | 94.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Under | 40c | 74.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc535…6047backed Under | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Under | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5d…5bc8backed Under | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 77c | 43.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 41.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Over | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 44c | 40.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…e52bbacked Over | 47c | 31.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Over | 49c | 25.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hornets vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-1.5)Mavericks won
- 1H Spread: Hornets (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Cooper Flagg: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Hornets vs. MavericksHornets won
- Hornets vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Hornets vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Hornets vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Max Christie: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Naji Marshall: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Spread: Hornets (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Hornets (-4.5)Mavericks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.