Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aeaf9b2620982482eba2466ed9547ba907da46f15d3c6cd1774db7ac1368cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 2,506$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.48 | 711 | 40.2%286 W · 425 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 23c | 1,100$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb5…ec99backed Yes | 29c | 990.41$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 78c | 702.6$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.57 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 71c | 681.87$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.82 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Yes | 24c | 559$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 77c | 493.1$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.41 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed No | 71c | 491.3$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.48 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 9c | 478.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 4c | 460.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 78c | 460$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.2 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 77c | 443.87$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x769b…2ea9backed Yes | 22c | 433.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 22c | 400.5$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.11 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 22c | 399.34$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a6…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 387.76$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 77c | 342.79$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.84 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec2…08afbacked Yes | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec5c…ce46backed Yes | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…e8f6backed Yes | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 26c | 256.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 241.65$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 233.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 226.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 16c | 202.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 76 | 32.9%25 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 12c | 190.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 169.95$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…32b5backed Yes | 31c | 154.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…0262backed Yes | 16c | 121.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 72c | 119.6$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…e109backed Yes | 24c | 117.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 9c | 117.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Yes | 30c | 98.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb161…9132backed Yes | 30c | 98.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 23c | 82.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 81.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 78c | 76.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 75c | 68.64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 22c | 64.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab7…d03cbacked Yes | 23c | 58.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 76c | 53.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 30c | 48.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x639f…6b8dbacked Yes | 22c | 47.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed No | 73c | 47.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 76c | 47.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 23c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 204 | 54.4%111 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Yes | 32c | 45.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x654d…ba8fbacked Yes | 22c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…d06dbacked Yes | 30c | 41.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 78c | 35.52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed No | 78c | 31.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed No | 73c | 20.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 78c | 14.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked No | 77c | 13.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-18?Yes won
- Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.