NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5af3b6bdf17f54c43659201ff0ab68b4b32c9182bf4285118407ef5a40270b26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Pacers, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 71c | 4,864$3,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.08 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pacers | 2c | 2,804$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…aac8backed Pacers | 29c | 2,748$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Thunder | 68c | 2,536$1,730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.07 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…0f1cbacked Pacers | 29c | 2,369$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…a2e8backed Pacers | 1c | 1,914$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04cb…4e37backed Pacers | 2c | 1,800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…8cb2backed Thunder | 74c | 1,512$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.51 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Pacers | 16c | 1,362$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.48 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Pacers | 26c | 1,250$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de2…e6c9backed Pacers | 33c | 1,167$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41e…8f3abacked Pacers | 2c | 1,143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Thunder | 74c | 1,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 70c | 810$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.58 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Thunder | 75c | 667.72$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.57 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc37…0ef8backed Pacers | 29c | 551.72$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a41…3a84backed Pacers | 5c | 400.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fb…c505backed Pacers | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Thunder | 75c | 387$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…b709backed Pacers | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cc…6795backed Pacers | 29c | 344.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9f1dbacked Pacers | 31c | 341.94$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed Pacers | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 134 | 8.2%11 W · 123 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457a…7b47backed Pacers | 16c | 244.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…350abacked Pacers | 33c | 205.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…61d1backed Pacers | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…4736backed Pacers | 29c | 192.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…fb4cbacked Thunder | 71c | 183.03$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ee…d8e2backed Pacers | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…b9b1backed Pacers | 29c | 165.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Pacers | 9c | 156.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…a956backed Pacers | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c88…5685backed Pacers | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…e3c2backed Pacers | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…5338backed Thunder | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090d…e0efbacked Pacers | 29c | 96.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…784abacked Thunder | 71c | 93.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…af7abacked Pacers | 28c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f12…5771backed Pacers | 32c | 77.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…2e54backed Pacers | 52c | 76.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07db…1711backed Pacers | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66df…0b1abacked Pacers | 47c | 53.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…406fbacked Pacers | 29c | 51.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…773fbacked Pacers | 29c | 40.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e3…00a8backed Pacers | 29c | 40.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Pacers | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pacers | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…9c76backed Thunder | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Thunder | 66c | 20.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f1…1fa1backed Thunder | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)this page
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 209.5Under won
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 219.5Under won
- Pacers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.