NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc74f432d68e1346bf3d90f9555c191937dc3078bb09ad11f298899482585c9b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Thunder | 44c | 13,534$5,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,637.04 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf921…94dbbacked Pacers | 56c | 9,084$5,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,087 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Pacers | 59c | 3,947$2,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,348.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…0d4ebacked Thunder | 40c | 3,333$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…8d15backed Pacers | 50c | 3,033$1,507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Thunder | 53c | 2,246$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.01 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…482cbacked Pacers | 58c | 1,031$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…c054backed Pacers | 57c | 865.58$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.38 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831b…eed5backed Pacers | 58c | 862.48$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 157 | 42.7%67 W · 90 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Pacers | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Pacers | 55c | 634.9$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.38 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…bdf7backed Pacers | 57c | 600.15$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 34cpaid | -84%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…a576backed Thunder | 41c | 449.99$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.5 | 157 | 24.2%38 W · 119 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Thunder | 36c | 348.3$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.57 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pacers | 4c | 342$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…4b7ebacked Thunder | 31c | 318.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.92 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a18…b639backed Pacers | 58c | 301.76$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…3303backed Thunder | 52c | 286.81$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers | 55c | 102.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.22 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Pacers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Pacers | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Thunder | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 42c | 68.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Thunder | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Thunder | 40c | 46.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d4…f320backed Pacers | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…c530backed Pacers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…d7eabacked Pacers | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…023fbacked Thunder | 46c | 31.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pacers | 57c | 30.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x871a…7be4backed Pacers | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7b…719ebacked Pacers | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…246cbacked Thunder | 56c | 19.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…ddc6backed Pacers | 58c | 18.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)this page
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 209.5Under won
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- Pacers vs Thunder: O/U 219.5Under won
- Pacers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Spread: Pacers (-2.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.