NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5afca8a11bd1b89dbee2a584186c73636a8b3b147bf38278fb883bbba3c7eac7

Rebuilt 32 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,711

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,174 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Under	49c	7,450$3,616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,615.56	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over	51c	7,229$3,686 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,542.26	362	48.9%177 W · 185 L	-6.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under	48c	1,465$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$709.75	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Over	51c	980.39$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.39	271	58.3%158 W · 113 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75aa…9f2abacked Over	53c	400$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	60cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f84…7650backed Over	52c	384.62$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.62	100	62%62 W · 38 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	64cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd07…cb4ebacked Over	52c	250$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	-12.4wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Over	52c	237$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.76	477	51.8%247 W · 230 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Under	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Under	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	1,197	47.5%569 W · 628 L	-32.0wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	337	43.6%147 W · 190 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a3d…2068backed Over	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	122	53.3%65 W · 57 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	46c	185.19$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.19	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69dc…336dbacked Over	54c	185.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.19	129	50.4%65 W · 64 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over	55c	181.82$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.82	174	56.9%99 W · 75 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over	52c	175$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	339	50.1%170 W · 169 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d20…f812backed Over	57c	105.07$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.07	603	46.4%280 W · 323 L	-12.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	49c	100$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Over	51c	98.04$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.04	345	56.2%194 W · 151 L	+17.1wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	69	56.5%39 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Over	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	166	50%83 W · 83 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfde8…c52fbacked Over	52c	85.56$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.07	185	36.2%67 W · 118 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b2…3886backed Over	53c	79.04$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.15	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Over	55c	72.73$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8f1…025dbacked Over	53c	69$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.43	93	51.6%48 W · 45 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a7…8150backed Over	52c	57.69$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.69	104	64.4%67 W · 37 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	63cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ec…fa43backed Over	53c	56.6$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.6	610	56.1%342 W · 268 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb966…cac6backed Over	53c	47.17$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.17	253	51%129 W · 124 L	-6.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	408	53.7%219 W · 189 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea1…6072backed Over	52c	38.46$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.46	245	66.9%164 W · 81 L	+7.5wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e6d…a980backed Over	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	43	62.8%27 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…748cbacked Over	53c	36.6$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.2	74	54.1%40 W · 34 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under	42c	35.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.74	2,265	43.4%982 W · 1,283 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa9…bad5backed Under	49c	30.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	58	36.2%21 W · 37 L	-6.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ec1…dd29backed Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	225	56.9%128 W · 97 L	+12.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ba1…b0b6backed Under	48c	22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	49	46.9%23 W · 26 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x033f…b8cabacked Over	53c	20.75$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	133	52.6%70 W · 63 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6376…0af3backed Over	58c	20.69$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.69	27	63%17 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	67cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event