NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d5e7424ed199f67a75f12ccf0bb5bb686fcf7fcbfabe7cdd488cb9f7234b69

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,665
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,668

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,665 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz	47c	4,000$1,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,880	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Thunder	53c	2,661$1,410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,250.82	927	53.5%496 W · 431 L	+20.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Jazz	52c	1,042$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder	53c	858.52$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.61	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder	49c	805.11$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.42	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Thunder	50c	400$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	331	50.8%168 W · 163 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e79…ff8bbacked Thunder	55c	363.96$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.96	174	56.9%99 W · 75 L	+10.3wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz	45c	362.22$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163	2,298	51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L	+65.4wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Jazz	47c	234$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.98	853	47.9%409 W · 444 L	+8.2wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Jazz	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	245	33.9%83 W · 162 L	-19.1wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Thunder	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	660	46.8%309 W · 351 L	-16.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Thunder	49c	151.96$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.5	470	48.5%228 W · 242 L	-18.6wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Thunder	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	74	48.6%36 W · 38 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	55cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae4…a127backed Jazz	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	110	41.8%46 W · 64 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Jazz	46c	99.98$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.99	123	42.3%52 W · 71 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Jazz	43c	58.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.34	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d27…d430backed Thunder	57c	58.93$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.34	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+2.5wins	+0.25per pick	35cpaid	+60%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder	24c	58.92$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.78	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Thunder	53c	56.7$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.7	710	44.6%317 W · 393 L	-6.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Jazz	46c	54$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.84	75	57.3%43 W · 32 L	+5.1wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jazz	44c	53.57$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.57	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Thunder	56c	53.57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.57	198	49%97 W · 101 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38dd…c20abacked Thunder	52c	39.71$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.06	336	50.6%170 W · 166 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a2…0c1abacked Thunder	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	104	47.1%49 W · 55 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084c…a811backed Thunder	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	50	54%27 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Jazz	46c	31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.26	76	48.7%37 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcda0…a51abacked Thunder	54c	30.31$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.94	296	52.7%156 W · 140 L	-6.2wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3024…8ecebacked Thunder	46c	23.33$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	88	75%66 W · 22 L	+12.8wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf447…3fe7backed Thunder	54c	21$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.66	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Thunder (-15.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event