NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc3a75ac559ca6909bfaa295e60d616ba3c642174fe180e8ac4f0bccead4168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $545,711
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $545,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,711 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Thunder | 51c | 496,171$254,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241,768.69 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jazz | 48c | 250,949$121,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121,147.19 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Jazz | 49c | 75,555$37,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,021.95 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4991…5ecdbacked Jazz | 49c | 55,242$27,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,068.61 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 49c | 24,973$12,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,346.51 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jazz | 49c | 22,500$10,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,925 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Jazz | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Jazz | 49c | 18,755$9,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,189.84 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Jazz | 48c | 15,555$7,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,466.4 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Jazz | 49c | 11,731$5,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,782.16 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jazz | 49c | 10,020$4,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,909.8 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jazz | 49c | 6,530$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,199.7 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,059.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Thunder | 50c | 3,744$1,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Thunder | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7620…d9f0backed Jazz | 52c | 1,942$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jazz | 49c | 1,552$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.43 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Jazz | 49c | 1,429$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.21 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 50c | 994.17$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.91 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jazz | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b2…6d9dbacked Thunder | 52c | 963.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.46 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Jazz | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Jazz | 49c | 797$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.53 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Jazz | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 337 | 35.3%119 W · 218 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Jazz | 49c | 423.08$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.31 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Thunder | 50c | 403.95$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.97 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jazz | 49c | 399$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Jazz | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder | 51c | 371$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Jazz | 54c | 370.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Jazz | 50c | 321$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Thunder | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Jazz | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Thunder | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Jazz | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 631 | 42%265 W · 366 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 49c | 181.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Jazz | 49c | 173$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.77 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Jazz | 52c | 160.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Thunder | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 310 | 55.5%172 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5e…b6dfbacked Thunder | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Thunder | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Jazz | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Thunder | 48c | 99.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 336 | 50.6%170 W · 166 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Jazz | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 60c | 86.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Thunder | 52c | 81.38$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jazz | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Jazz | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Thunder | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…e2ffbacked Thunder | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Thunder | 48c | 61.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.77 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Thunder | 49c | 57.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Thunder | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…7358backed Jazz | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Jazz | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Jazz | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Jazz | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Jazz | 50c | 43.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder | 44c | 37.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Jazz | 52c | 34.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Thunder | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Thunder | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 852 | 48.9%417 W · 435 L | +26.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Jazz | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084d…7e47backed Jazz | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Jazz | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aed…bd17backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -30%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaecc…eb20backed Jazz | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. JazzThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.