NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebfb113d2a3f0e1be6cebb9fd737f62a2014e35e13bc56cf6db8721f519764bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3850…c4b4backed Over | 51c | 25,000$12,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,250 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Under | 49c | 19,086$9,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,352.14 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Over | 50c | 9,240$4,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,620 | 175 | 54.9%96 W · 79 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 7,437$3,681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,681.14 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 4,985$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.37 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 49c | 4,119$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.31 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Under | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,469.99 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Over | 52c | 2,890$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.38 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Over | 56c | 2,385$1,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.45 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 1,213$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.07 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 766.36$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.22 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 48c | 729$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.92 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f7…266fbacked Under | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 457 | 3.5%16 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 51c | 632.08$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.72 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.99 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 375$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.75 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 49c | 366$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.92 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…d167backed Over | 55c | 313.28$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.98 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdb…6404backed Over | 52c | 191.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 531 | 41.8%222 W · 309 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6edb…6089backed Over | 53c | 189.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…5945backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 45c | 114$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…61ddbacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…2a71backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1351…bebcbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 51c | 86.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 50c | 78.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb3…6ceabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebcc…c21ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Over | 52c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 45c | 37.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5615…19cebacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 52c | 35.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…9188backed Under | 53c | 31.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 236 | 51.7%122 W · 114 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Under | 51c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…947cbacked Over | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…d3bebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Over | 58c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Over | 52c | 19.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. JazzThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.