NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-17.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x309bd58fc898c2ad26775c11bde7ce1ad68143bc3acd78abd15f0e195ee85689
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Jazz | 54c | 15,266$8,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,243.43 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 45c | 7,809$3,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,256.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Thunder | 46c | 7,007$3,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,783.58 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Thunder | 45c | 4,134$1,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,287.01 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jazz | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,199.99 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed Jazz | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…0c1bbacked Thunder | 47c | 1,706$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.38 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.6wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 45c | 1,316$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.27 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Jazz | 56c | 1,143$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 45c | 966.68$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder | 45c | 910$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 48c | 562.31$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.94 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Thunder | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 46c | 427$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.58 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf85…acc4backed Thunder | 80c | 368$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…b758backed Thunder | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 244 | 46.7%114 W · 130 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Thunder | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Thunder | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Jazz | 52c | 157.17$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.33 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 47c | 152.25$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Jazz | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Jazz | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Jazz | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Jazz | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Jazz | 52c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…9790backed Jazz | 57c | 88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 133 | 58.6%78 W · 55 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Jazz | 56c | 71.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Jazz | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 224 | 67.9%152 W · 72 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jazz | 52c | 53.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Jazz | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Jazz | 54c | 50.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Jazz | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Jazz | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Jazz | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Jazz | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Thunder | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Jazz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Jazz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Jazz | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3c…25e1backed Thunder | 53c | 26.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Jazz | 49c | 26.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Thunder | 47c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-17.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. JazzThunder won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 236.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Jazz: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.