Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b14a5dadbf0883144376653bde5de1dc2f98fbfa718fb8911e91c460d3f91e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,946
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,946 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 5,761$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,047$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 638.36$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 350.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 10c | 213.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 10c | 206.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 8c | 174.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…e1b8backed Yes | 10c | 163.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce2…3aecbacked Yes | 19c | 156.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f97…6f2dbacked Yes | 21c | 151.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 150.87$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…ca2bbacked Yes | 21c | 141.61$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 133.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 77c | 123.82$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbf…002fbacked Yes | 11c | 121.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | +19.9wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +424.1%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 10c | 120.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb8…38aebacked Yes | 24c | 117.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 108.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 19c | 106.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 21c | 101.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 96.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 12c | 89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 18c | 88.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 80c | 80.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 24c | 76.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 20c | 74.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 23c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 69.69$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 69.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 22c | 48.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 47.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 46.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 78c | 44.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…9535backed Yes | 24c | 42.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f7…5b55backed Yes | 25c | 40.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…d270backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 76c | 32.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 77c | 30.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 29.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 79c | 25.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed No | 76c | 23.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 73c | 19.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 76c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0516backed No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.