Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce89d8d12e545180edb8f453e874741babd40257b36787d0b4e585e7e5dfeab9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 3c | 5,584$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.11 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,310$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 574.17$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 399.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 266.79$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 238.77$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 227$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 210.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 203$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0686…f876backed Yes | 27c | 188.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 40c | 183.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 182.1$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 181$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 20c | 172.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 34c | 169.28$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 22c | 157.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 36c | 134.65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 28c | 126.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 115.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 115.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 114.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 29c | 110.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 30c | 100.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x367a…8af4backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 63c | 99.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 40c | 98.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 40c | 97.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 28c | 92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 30c | 88.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…c9d1backed Yes | 15c | 82.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 74.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 73.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 63c | 69.68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 66.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…221ebacked Yes | 37c | 65.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe88f…34cebacked Yes | 31c | 64.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 76c | 61.83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…503abacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 31c | 53.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 52.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 39c | 51.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 51.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…cce9backed Yes | 20c | 50.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…ed5bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…84bfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 204 | 45.1%92 W · 112 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…00afbacked Yes | 42c | 47.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 46.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 39c | 38.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 67c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 34.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 61c | 30.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 39c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…a7f9backed No | 69c | 30.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…cd67backed No | 68c | 28.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…b552backed No | 64c | 28.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…02fcbacked No | 67c | 26.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 67c | 24.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 23.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1c…6a1ebacked No | 63c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 23.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 18.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 64c | 15.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.