Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aeeba6b351559ae7efaf63c5304f8744c5ea77e86a66aafad213e481c9d8625
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,327
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cec…6515backed Yes | 0c | 6,227$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 5,503$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 6c | 1,127$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 20c | 943.72$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.88 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 9c | 900.21$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 403.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 350.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 17c | 281.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 247.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 243.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 4c | 243$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 76c | 237.74$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.03 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 228$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 11c | 220.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked No | 78c | 200.21$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 23c | 199.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.6 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 20c | 189.87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 15c | 177.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 36c | 168.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 162.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 160.91$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 160.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 33c | 151.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 143.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 140.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a4…d98cbacked No | 76c | 132.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 18c | 131.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 22c | 131$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 33c | 127.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…6d37backed No | 71c | 126.68$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 75cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 25c | 124.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 21c | 123.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…795ebacked Yes | 27c | 122.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 18c | 120.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 119.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 117.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1f…e428backed Yes | 16c | 115.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 99 | 31.3%31 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 113.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 22c | 110.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…cce9backed Yes | 28c | 107.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8785…5d00backed Yes | 29c | 104.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…36a1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…b2f0backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 99.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed Yes | 32c | 88.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 24c | 88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 30c | 85.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 30c | 85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 84.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 77.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 22c | 68.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 79c | 67.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 20c | 67.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 16c | 64.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 29c | 62.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4c…ebeabacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…96cbbacked No | 76c | 59.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 73c | 56.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 22c | 56.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 55.71$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 54.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 53.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 79c | 53.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…6dd9backed Yes | 25c | 50.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 23c | 49.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 29c | 48.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 75c | 47.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 77c | 44.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…0fc4backed Yes | 32c | 43.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 69c | 41.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 37.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 78c | 35.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 67c | 34.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 33.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…198dbacked Yes | 35c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f2…29c2backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fb…b7afbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 77c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 27.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 78c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 70c | 23.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.