Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e152248bbb6f020fa88f5ad5bc5cc6208696bb3f3f7ec2146f0a8ec7a8feb29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,280
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,280 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb527…903dbacked No | 1c | 6,731$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.53 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 1c | 2,356$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,327.75 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 11c | 1,254$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed Yes | 11c | 1,035$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.4 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 32c | 1,025$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 16c | 968.15$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 6c | 820.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.41 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 674.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.71 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 16c | 590.68$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.91 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 3c | 503.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.01 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 46c | 471.06$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.16 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 46c | 381.07$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7630…789dbacked Yes | 4c | 321.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.03 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +8.9wins | +0.27per pick | 37cpaid | +144.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 9c | 313.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.75 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 35c | 283.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.27 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 264$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.1 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 4c | 261.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.81 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 79c | 252.29$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2695…60f8backed No | 6c | 250$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f9…8a6ebacked No | 17c | 228.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 39c | 211.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.68 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 8c | 195.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.88 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 186.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.69 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 179.29$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 28c | 179$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 12c | 173.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 12c | 154.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 147.27$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf67…9fccbacked Yes | 13c | 146.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.68 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 58c | 145.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 38c | 143.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 11c | 142.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 141.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.71 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 137.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2b05backed No | 35c | 131.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7d…87f5backed Yes | 15c | 121.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 55c | 121$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 14c | 120.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.75 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 18c | 117.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.44 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed No | 28c | 115.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 20c | 112.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 110.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb211…10b3backed No | 34c | 106.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 94 | 53.2%50 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 50c | 103.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 20c | 102$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 20c | 101.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 15c | 97.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.07 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 90.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 44c | 86.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked No | 68c | 82.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 19c | 79.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 18c | 72.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 21c | 71.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 19c | 66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.35 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 63.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 63.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 20c | 62.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 50c | 62.09$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 21c | 55.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 61c | 54.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…cce9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcae…6e9dbacked No | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 20c | 49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 36c | 45.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 79c | 42.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 36.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 54c | 36.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 46c | 33.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 76c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf837…b7adbacked No | 75c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 53c | 26.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…02fcbacked Yes | 52c | 24.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 49c | 23.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325e…5308backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on May 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on May 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.