La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b4d9d106f5c41b2a43c75bcc694659e430d3784449e74b9a145ffac1b0e962f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 3,019$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222.31 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 68c | 2,825$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 30c | 1,505$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,057.38 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…19ccbacked Over | 17c | 1,498$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 10c | 1,146$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.55 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…079fbacked Under | 74c | 1,040$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 52c | 900$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.66 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 13c | 621$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.27 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Under | 62c | 614.84$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 14c | 595.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.62 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…1ea8backed Under | 3c | 452.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1716…72aabacked Over | 12c | 372.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 74c | 304.28$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.54 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 8c | 299.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.48 | 103 | 29.1%30 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 12c | 201.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.08 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 42c | 188.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.25 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Under | 54c | 179.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.59 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 64c | 155.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Under | 60c | 141.68$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.01 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 13c | 105.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…134fbacked Over | 12c | 105$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +181.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 161 | 49.7%80 W · 81 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 42c | 93.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 281 | 38.8%109 W · 172 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 36c | 91.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 49c | 81.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Under | 60c | 60.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 23c | 51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 25c | 48.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe18…231bbacked Under | 78c | 37.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -39%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…23f1backed Under | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -9.0wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.