La Liga · resolved market
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00f942657f5a7010cf4619151f71f4f8299efbfabec569a207f149d1e57ab470
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 19c | 2,599$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.73 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 33c | 2,345$773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$773.48 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 78c | 1,923$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.22 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 72c | 1,913$1,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.67 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Under | 19c | 904.02$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.94 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 65c | 672.18$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.64 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Under | 36c | 549.78$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 35c | 531.64$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.03 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Over | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 29c | 496.95$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.82 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Over | 65c | 495.25$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.05 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +11.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…19ccbacked Over | 69c | 489.82$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 10c | 448.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 201 | 42.8%86 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 66c | 403.48$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.22 | 224 | 55.8%125 W · 99 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c74…3c0dbacked Under | 25c | 401.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 67c | 401.55$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.29 | 403 | 57.1%230 W · 173 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…98dcbacked Under | 32c | 369.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.39 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f0…6fb4backed Over | 64c | 354.14$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Under | 36c | 335.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…f419backed Over | 63c | 325.4$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +561.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 64c | 312.17$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.38 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 68c | 310$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 103 | 29.1%30 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 64c | 303.27$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 32c | 287.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.9 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…ad6dbacked Under | 12c | 274.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 12cpaid | +247.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 34c | 199.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 33c | 189.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 72c | 182.94$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 163 | 63.8%104 W · 59 L | +32.3wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 17c | 168.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed Under | 36c | 165.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +9.8wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 34c | 146.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcb…f3afbacked Over | 68c | 145.72$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Under | 36c | 143.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.72 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fa…6eebbacked Under | 36c | 140.85$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9522…7af0backed Under | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 36c | 122.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 35c | 119.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 64c | 112.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 454 | 50%227 W · 227 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 67c | 111.06$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.65 | 198 | 65.2%129 W · 69 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Under | 36c | 108.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Over | 65c | 102.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 35c | 100.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 224 | 48.2%108 W · 116 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Over | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 15c | 72.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 211 | 39.8%84 W · 127 L | -15.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 68c | 64.37$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 326 | 45.4%148 W · 178 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 32c | 59.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 186 | 53.8%100 W · 86 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Over | 65c | 57.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8006…94dcbacked Under | 37c | 54.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Under | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 63c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.76 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…6b14backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 214 | 57.5%123 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…1174backed Under | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 78c | 43.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 417 | 51.8%216 W · 201 L | +18.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 36c | 42.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 73c | 37.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 168 | 65.5%110 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 69c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 281 | 38.8%109 W · 172 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Over | 72c | 31.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033a…7188backed Over | 72c | 31.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Under | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8684…bfaabacked Under | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Over | 66c | 27.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 91 | 67%61 W · 30 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…af7bbacked Over | 65c | 25.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 68c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 67c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 75c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 67c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 67 | 70.1%47 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.