La Liga · resolved market
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x864acde7712e2f2103bd7350bbe9f2198f5546907154a4373a56ad0a76da6685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Real Madrid CFof Real Madrid CF, Athletic Club
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletic Club | 55c | 6,610$3,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,611.67 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Real Madrid CF | 44c | 4,314$1,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,408.78 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Real Madrid CF | 41c | 1,187$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.11 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Real Madrid CF | 54c | 1,141$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.43 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8325…19ccbacked Real Madrid CF | 38c | 988.15$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletic Club | 57c | 831.18$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.36 | 684 | 50.6%346 W · 338 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Real Madrid CF | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…36bfbacked Real Madrid CF | 53c | 700$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Athletic Club | 50c | 664.79$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.78 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Athletic Club | 59c | 640$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.66 | 482 | 51.2%247 W · 235 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Athletic Club | 4c | 564$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Real Madrid CF | 40c | 489.42$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Real Madrid CF | 41c | 463.41$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.41 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Real Madrid CF | 38c | 423$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.9 | 103 | 29.1%30 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Athletic Club | 59c | 398.32$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.01 | 481 | 53.6%258 W · 223 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Real Madrid CF | 42c | 380.02$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.41 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Athletic Club | 58c | 378.66$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.62 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Real Madrid CF | 64c | 343.75$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Athletic Club | 13c | 315.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 281 | 38.8%109 W · 172 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Real Madrid CF | 54c | 192.89$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.73 | 192 | 47.4%91 W · 101 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Athletic Club | 60c | 166$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 280 | 45.4%127 W · 153 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…9732backed Real Madrid CF | 41c | 158.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.54 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Real Madrid CF | 52c | 145.09$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 34cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36e4…8f38backed Athletic Club | 58c | 142.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Real Madrid CF | 54c | 141.33$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Athletic Club | 45c | 135.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 198 | 65.2%129 W · 69 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…52edbacked Real Madrid CF | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…3383backed Real Madrid CF | 43c | 129.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…54d3backed Athletic Club | 58c | 126.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b7…5383backed Real Madrid CF | 43c | 119.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.37 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…b23ebacked Real Madrid CF | 43c | 112.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9324…1858backed Real Madrid CF | 43c | 111.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…041ebacked Athletic Club | 58c | 109.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…5159backed Real Madrid CF | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Real Madrid CF | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Real Madrid CF | 41c | 99.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 224 | 48.2%108 W · 116 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Athletic Club | 59c | 99.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 644 | 57%367 W · 277 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Real Madrid CF | 52c | 98.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Athletic Club | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…5bf1backed Athletic Club | 58c | 95.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Real Madrid CF | 41c | 82.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Real Madrid CF | 37c | 81.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 283 | 42.8%121 W · 162 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Athletic Club | 18c | 77.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 373 | 48.3%180 W · 193 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb1…6eb0backed Real Madrid CF | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Real Madrid CF | 51c | 72.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Real Madrid CF | 43c | 70.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 156 | 55.8%87 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Real Madrid CF | 70c | 68.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 402 | 39.1%157 W · 245 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Athletic Club | 59c | 68.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Athletic Club | 17c | 67.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Real Madrid CF | 37c | 65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c25…6bbcbacked Athletic Club | 59c | 58.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Athletic Club | 63c | 55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Athletic Club | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9116…1d58backed Real Madrid CF | 41c | 48.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Real Madrid CF | 43c | 45.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…236ebacked Real Madrid CF | 52c | 44.23$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Real Madrid CF | 54c | 42.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Athletic Club | 59c | 39.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 226 | 58.4%132 W · 94 L | +10.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27ff…d0dfbacked Real Madrid CF | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…2ed2backed Real Madrid CF | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 45cpaid | +100%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Real Madrid CF | 64c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Real Madrid CF | 39c | 31.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Real Madrid CF | 40c | 30.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Real Madrid CF | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Athletic Club | 53c | 29.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7133…edd9backed Athletic Club | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Real Madrid CF | 64c | 24.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Athletic Club | 57c | 23.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,081 | 50.6%547 W · 534 L | +11.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Athletic Club | 48c | 22.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 261 | 54.4%142 W · 119 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Athletic Club | 58c | 21.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Athletic Club | 57c | 21.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x628b…6861backed Athletic Club | 60c | 18.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5)this page
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 4.5Over won
- Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)Real Madrid CF won
- Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.