Champions League · resolved market
AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b99d01b38e373dd4d5f44c80ddc09dcc055b036330b39f440f772c20933532f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- AEKof AEK, PFK Levski Sofia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,390
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,390 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked PFK Levski Sofia | 19c | 2,105$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.01 | 369 | 42.5%157 W · 212 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d2…4be6backed PFK Levski Sofia | 23c | 1,033$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked AEK | 80c | 746$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.2 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked PFK Levski Sofia | 19c | 550.26$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 472 | 46.8%221 W · 251 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed AEK | 75c | 529.49$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.59 | 664 | 46.2%307 W · 357 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed PFK Levski Sofia | 20c | 490$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed AEK | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 258 | 59.7%154 W · 104 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36e…b100backed PFK Levski Sofia | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…46f8backed PFK Levski Sofia | 21c | 233.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…f8c5backed PFK Levski Sofia | 21c | 220$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed AEK | 79c | 153.12$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed AEK | 78c | 152.48$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 160 | 35.6%57 W · 103 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed PFK Levski Sofia | 19c | 140.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 526 | 46.8%246 W · 280 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b25…7a69backed AEK | 80c | 135.15$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…1bb7backed AEK | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee42…64a2backed PFK Levski Sofia | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…947abacked AEK | 80c | 94.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…6f62backed PFK Levski Sofia | 20c | 94.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked AEK | 77c | 81.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed AEK | 75c | 78.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 316 | 56.6%179 W · 137 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf41e…b80fbacked PFK Levski Sofia | 26c | 69.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked AEK | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b81…88e7backed AEK | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bc…46cebacked PFK Levski Sofia | 19c | 52.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +109.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x455d…6011backed AEK | 80c | 49.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed AEK | 79c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a0…5fdbbacked AEK | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd515…2c54backed AEK | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45c…fb69backed AEK | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.2wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Team to Advancethis page
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: AEK O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 0.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 3.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 4.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 5.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)AEK won
- Spread: AEK (-2.5)AEK won
- Spread: PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.