Champions League · resolved market
AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d235ae1d7b9122c5fc2f5fda08e212b6912451a9fa718a3e937e6987148b669
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86da…6428backed Over | 46c | 40,803$18,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,033.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 54c | 15,000$8,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,100 | 286 | 43.7%125 W · 161 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 7,916$4,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,309.82 | 1,543 | 40.1%618 W · 925 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 54c | 6,554$3,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,540.24 | 968 | 37.4%362 W · 606 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 54c | 6,291$3,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,374.91 | 472 | 46.8%221 W · 251 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 5,029$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.13 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 4,676$2,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,527.67 | 498 | 40.4%201 W · 297 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d67…6b86backed Under | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 48c | 3,152$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.6 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 42c | 2,848$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.15 | 749 | 35.4%265 W · 484 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 54c | 2,274$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.13 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 45c | 1,565$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.13 | 156 | 48.1%75 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.37 | 664 | 46.2%307 W · 357 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 45c | 1,024$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.2 | 309 | 49.8%154 W · 155 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 328 | 47.9%157 W · 171 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 344 | 45.1%155 W · 189 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 526 | 46.8%246 W · 280 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 47c | 851.89$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.8 | 910 | 32.6%297 W · 613 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Under | 55c | 700$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 43c | 399.95$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.97 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 22c | 394$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 269 | 31.6%85 W · 184 L | -22.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7997…5e4bbacked Under | 55c | 352$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…d109backed Over | 47c | 304.26$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899a…7249backed Over | 44c | 214.23$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240a…814cbacked Over | 45c | 210$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Over | 46c | 205.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x085d…c89ebacked Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8db…7c68backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 54c | 194.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.05 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa87d…ff4dbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Over | 47c | 175$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…c159backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +87.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 123 | 38.2%47 W · 76 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68f0…c32dbacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…3b21backed Under | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 55c | 87.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 54c | 85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 44c | 78.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d1…5ba7backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Over | 44c | 55.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 54c | 50.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…9e2bbacked Under | 55c | 44.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bf…e5d8backed Over | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Under | 53c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Under | 54c | 35.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…1012backed Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 64c | 29.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2b…de68backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd7…9c01backed Over | 44c | 27.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 24.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 676 | 49.4%334 W · 342 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 47c | 22.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 87 | 67.8%59 W · 28 L | +13.2wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 56c | 20.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 349 | 43.3%151 W · 198 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a98…df3bbacked Under | 54c | 18.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5this page
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: AEK O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 0.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 3.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 4.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 5.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Team to AdvanceAEK won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)AEK won
- Spread: AEK (-2.5)AEK won
- Spread: PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.