Champions League · resolved market
AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60b1e390f479881b4a4dfa0f33d5bf69be3e1f903b64e27473ff392026bd4fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 25c | 4,511$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,382.97 | 147 | 32.7%48 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 68c | 3,930$2,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,664 | 749 | 35.4%265 W · 484 L | -30.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Under | 77c | 2,480$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,909.6 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 69cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 33c | 1,956$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.21 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 13c | 1,009$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.46 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 23c | 1,000$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.03 | 526 | 46.8%246 W · 280 L | -9.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 369 | 42.5%157 W · 212 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 75c | 907.96$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.97 | 472 | 46.8%221 W · 251 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 23c | 674.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.99 | 664 | 46.2%307 W · 357 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 78c | 604$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.12 | 157 | 41.4%65 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Over | 22c | 599.97$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.97 | 232 | 47.4%110 W · 122 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 65c | 483.38$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 498 | 40.4%201 W · 297 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc820…49debacked Under | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 11c | 230.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 64 | 32.8%21 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…882dbacked Under | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 23c | 135$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 1,071 | 34.8%373 W · 698 L | -15.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 59c | 96.51$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 69c | 86.93$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 269 | 31.6%85 W · 184 L | -22.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…97f1backed Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -50%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 23c | 62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 676 | 49.4%334 W · 342 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 23c | 58.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 910 | 32.6%297 W · 613 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 77c | 48.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Under | 77c | 41.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 70 | 71.4%50 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 58c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Under | 76c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 3.5this page
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: AEK O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 0.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 1.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 2.5Over won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 4.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: O/U 5.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 0.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 1.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: PFK Levski Sofia O/U 2.5Under won
- AEK vs. PFK Levski Sofia: Team to AdvanceAEK won
- Spread: AEK (-1.5)AEK won
- Spread: AEK (-2.5)AEK won
- Spread: PFK Levski Sofia (-1.5)AEK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.