MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc299159744af0cd0808ae2227307866490fc9b68fd327788ed3b9bf338b860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 61c | 9,450$5,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,713.38 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 9,193$3,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,775.89 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 4,860$1,895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.41 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 42c | 3,305$1,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.38 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 63c | 1,965$1,229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.88 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 58c | 913.6$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.71 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 564.12$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 61c | 447.04$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.72 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 39c | 385.81$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 58c | 375.94$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.89 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 32c | 293.56$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 40c | 287.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.86 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 58c | 252.29$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.96 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 39c | 195$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 47c | 187.09$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 14c | 158.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 59c | 157.88$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 39c | 142.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 60c | 136$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.89 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Over | 60c | 131.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 60c | 130.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 40c | 129.72$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.89 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 41c | 102.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Over | 63c | 94.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +12.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Under | 41c | 92.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Over | 60c | 89.32$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.73 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 59c | 80.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 59c | 79.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 60c | 68.39$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Over | 60c | 66.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 54c | 60.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Over | 63c | 46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Under | 41c | 45.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 60c | 41.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Over | 60c | 34.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Over | 60c | 32.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Over | 60c | 32.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 39c | 31.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Over | 60c | 24.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 61c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-5.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.