MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4287170a3a5dae0c3c8919b7f30f41f1e3c67021b2310dc7941727676f92e55c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,372
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 1c | 15,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 1,176 | 43.8%515 W · 661 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 11,419$7,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,193.73 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 9,107$3,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,737.15 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 6,655$3,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,524.4 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 3,298$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.72 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 31c | 3,050$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.5 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 3,001$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.13 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 2,383$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,509.88 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 1,463$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.59 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 986.02$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.2 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 974.99$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.25 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 933$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.81 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 514.49$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.65 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 489$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 434$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.26 | 3,219 | 51.2%1,649 W · 1,570 L | +148.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 390$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +11.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 330.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.51 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 300$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 297.32$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.31 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 280$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.2 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 216$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 195.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 195.6$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.14 | 795 | 55.6%442 W · 353 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 195$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.85 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 187.32$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.01 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 183.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.31 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 182$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.48 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 160.86$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 153$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 146.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.32 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 109.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 98.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 76.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 68.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 64.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 108 | 49.1%53 W · 55 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5de2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 37.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 34.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 32.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 30.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 28.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 212 | 52.4%111 W · 101 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 52c | 19.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 17.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 12.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-5.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.