MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be65309cdcc021e25f1f344a63e47037ba37c0212a4d978fa414ea87ae241d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,972
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e2f…aaf8backed Over | 48c | 20,000$9,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,574.98 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 49c | 12,192$5,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,244.04 | 501 | 53.5%268 W · 233 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 7,745$5,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,560.28 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 4,712$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Over | 52c | 3,424$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.31 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 59c | 2,561$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 50c | 2,400$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 51c | 1,601$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.28 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 59c | 1,598$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.18 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,035$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.31 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 999.99$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 924.99$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.99 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…1461backed Under | 50c | 913.35$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.68 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfd…a4bbbacked Over | 49c | 583$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.67 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 51c | 556.5$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 59c | 522.7$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.88 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 32c | 497.97$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.48 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 423$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.96 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 50c | 377.62$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.81 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 49c | 357.72$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.58 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Over | 50c | 310.6$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.3 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 51c | 305.94$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 71c | 299.92$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb97…7ae1backed Over | 28c | 236.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.22 | 85 | 34.1%29 W · 56 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 26c | 220.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff68…8379backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 168.9$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.14 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 33c | 165.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 51c | 159.2$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.19 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 50c | 149.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe77…c8e7backed Under | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 232 | 44%102 W · 130 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d7…32d8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Over | 30c | 65.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 50c | 61.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec14…7fafbacked Over | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 478 | 49%234 W · 244 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 31c | 59.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Under | 50c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 51c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 56c | 48.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 64c | 45.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…352ebacked Under | 50c | 42.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 71c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 48c | 23.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 71c | 23.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 50c | 22.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…de5ebacked Under | 64c | 20.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.