MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfb507d19baba555e43db4eb237eebf1dd8a813f3664fd644b7c8f7a26391988
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,528
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 2,525$1,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,625.81 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 2,233$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.32 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 1,346$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 808$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.96 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 716.6$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.23 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 37c | 699.99$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 285.6$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.07 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 278.01$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.58 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 276.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.76 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 31c | 272.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 205.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…bd08backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 151$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.13 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 125$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 120$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 44c | 89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 77.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 69.01$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 67.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Toronto Blue Jays | 28c | 67.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 67.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 59.18$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4436…cf98backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 56.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 48.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c49…c6c2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 32.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 55cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 53.1%120 W · 106 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 30.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 28.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Tampa Bay Rays | 63c | 26.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…9aa6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 5.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.