Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be6aa1ba05e3d87da3f84685f13d6650095b697284bbc738d8e5634a6880e45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,007
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,007 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 463.71$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 369.14$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.79 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 24c | 343.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 25c | 280.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 249.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 22c | 210$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 199.16$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 25c | 184.67$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 25c | 181.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 178.63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 76c | 173.86$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 18c | 169.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 23c | 169.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 157.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 153.65$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 150.46$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 79c | 146.04$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 30c | 145.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 73c | 129.99$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 129.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 127.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 80c | 120.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 120.29$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 76c | 112.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.02 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 25c | 110.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 73c | 105.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 18c | 105.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 77c | 104.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 99.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 20c | 99.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 97.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 27c | 92.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 91.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 27c | 86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 17c | 78.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 73c | 78.16$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 30c | 71.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51e…a5d0backed No | 69c | 70.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 30c | 67.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked No | 74c | 65.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 79c | 61.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 21c | 61.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 24c | 61.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 29c | 60.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 59.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 58.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 22c | 57.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 77c | 55.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 28c | 55.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2efb…04afbacked Yes | 22c | 54.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +184.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 25c | 53.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 19c | 52.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 52.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 30c | 51.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 28c | 49.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 28c | 48.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 47.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 74c | 46.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 24c | 46.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ca…a13cbacked Yes | 26c | 45.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 77c | 43.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…55c4backed Yes | 24c | 42.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 40.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 26c | 39.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 76c | 39.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 32c | 38.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 33c | 37.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 70c | 37.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 74c | 37.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 31c | 32.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 32.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 76c | 29.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 73c | 29.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…916fbacked No | 69c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 73c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399f…e8d8backed No | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 75c | 24.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 75c | 23.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 76c | 21.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 73c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 79c | 19.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…f045backed No | 77c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 78c | 14.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…5e41backed No | 80c | 14.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.88 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.