Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca109b10a9e3e1f59fd1e53d6d992f6a22b5f69c1b5854c424bf4d6ada80ec96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,731
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,731 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 18c | 2,104$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.17 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…eadabacked No | 80c | 1,339$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 920.08$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 767.28$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2893…e849backed No | 79c | 700$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376a…d270backed Yes | 57c | 687.79$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.54 | 48 | 89.6%43 W · 5 L | +14.9wins | +0.31per pick | 59cpaid | +78%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 674.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.3 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 18c | 631.12$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.35 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 26c | 543.6$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 311.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9855…8190backed No | 72c | 291.74$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 25c | 288.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.34 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked Yes | 20c | 257.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.78 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 71c | 254.45$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.81 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 250.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 17c | 249.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.48 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 74c | 222.15$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.2 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed No | 77c | 220.81$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.09 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 205.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…d9d3backed No | 76c | 204.97$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 32c | 190.74$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.08 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 79c | 185.47$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.88 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 35c | 181.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 21c | 178.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.96 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 175.68$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 22c | 175.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 172.17$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 16c | 166.03$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.38 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 31c | 162.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 159.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 78c | 150.89$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 146.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked Yes | 22c | 144.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.19 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 17c | 135.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 133.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 133$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 121.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.37 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked Yes | 13c | 120.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.25 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 17c | 119.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 17c | 118.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 11c | 115.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.87 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 24c | 115.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.79 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 24c | 113.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 110.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 63c | 108.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 23c | 108.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.38 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…07cfbacked No | 10c | 105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 31c | 104.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed No | 67c | 103.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 22c | 101.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.46 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba04…310bbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 117 | 31.6%37 W · 80 L | -19.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe175…4752backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 26c | 99.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 77c | 98.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 96.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.89 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 75c | 95.22$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 16c | 94.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 30c | 93.96$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db3…7bddbacked Yes | 25c | 90$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 14c | 89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 33c | 87.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 87.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 33c | 84.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked Yes | 20c | 82.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.24 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…47bfbacked No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed Yes | 26c | 76.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 75.54$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed Yes | 26c | 71.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.41 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 20c | 71.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 25c | 70.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 35c | 62.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4de…0d3fbacked Yes | 28c | 62.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 27c | 62.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 24c | 60.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.93 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…7876backed Yes | 21c | 59.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.18 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…2d2abacked No | 77c | 58.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 18c | 57.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…bac2backed No | 72c | 55.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x766e…75f6backed Yes | 19c | 53.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 165 | 18.2%30 W · 135 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd484…046fbacked Yes | 23c | 52.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 36c | 52.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…63b0backed No | 78c | 48.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 67c | 47.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed Yes | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.69 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed Yes | 26c | 45.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 44.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.31 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 24c | 44.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.51 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 66c | 43.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 24c | 43.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.88 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 79c | 41.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.24 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 79c | 41.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 79c | 41.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C or higher on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.