Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c1270f9f084af7a058a21e549f0b009490d9502f216017e645890469964d7a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 577.94$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.08 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 26c | 575.29$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.29 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa16c…7936backed No | 68c | 553.46$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 32c | 470.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.48 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 331.78$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.25 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 34c | 291.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.86 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 269.17$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56aa…9e31backed No | 76c | 263.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +26%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 35c | 244.15$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.35 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 6c | 189.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 163.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 57c | 140.35$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 140$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 127.48$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 63c | 120.76$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd33e…8736backed No | 77c | 120$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 62c | 118.07$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 115.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 102.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.5 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 28c | 101$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 98.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 19c | 91.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…9a70backed No | 65c | 85.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 40c | 83.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 58c | 83.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 80c | 82.63$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 74c | 78.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 25c | 76.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 49c | 74.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 19c | 72.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 39c | 71.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 71.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 20c | 66.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4550…0f28backed No | 76c | 65.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f72…0b9bbacked Yes | 31c | 64.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 61.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 44c | 60.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 55.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 65c | 55.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 26c | 53.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 51.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 44c | 47.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 42.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 39c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 37.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 37.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 35.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 27.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa485…7b85backed No | 69c | 25.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 24.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 22.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 60c | 22.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 20.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66f1…c7a1backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 18.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 71c | 18.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…6114backed Yes | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7821…9855backed No | 73c | 13.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.