Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a87c9156fbb6407bc5776e85445472f2b2ee8d630e7ea2e0938bec2d222635e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 48c | 899.99$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.54 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 50c | 505.72$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 53c | 336.71$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.74 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 45c | 328.06$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 214.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 60c | 178.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.22 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 163.33$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 47c | 160.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 64c | 146.84$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 122.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 39c | 121.11$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 54c | 111.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 49c | 110.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 66c | 101.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.74 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 52c | 99.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 98.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 73c | 96.16$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 93.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 92.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 36c | 84.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 77.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 41c | 69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 68.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0179…d39fbacked Yes | 57c | 62.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 49c | 61.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 57.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 56.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 33c | 55.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 53.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 61c | 42.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 46c | 38.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 52c | 37.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 35c | 36.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 71c | 36.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 36.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 52c | 35.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab2d…b1aabacked No | 51c | 34.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 53c | 33.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 60c | 32.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 72c | 32.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed Yes | 61c | 31.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 52c | 30.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…7481backed Yes | 68c | 29.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed No | 53c | 26.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 51c | 26.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…154ebacked Yes | 53c | 25.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 51c | 23.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 44c | 23.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c1…ac39backed Yes | 69c | 22.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 60c | 21.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 67c | 21.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed No | 53c | 20.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 51c | 20.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4d…73eebacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.