MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2bc8541b683dd6f2413a6df71b8fcb25ed69c1339fc7413cac9e5d60449c39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 14c | 1,663$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 69c | 713.68$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.8 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 18c | 577$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.06 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 68c | 421.34$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.83 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 80c | 368.28$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.66 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 26c | 361.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 336.24$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.7 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 20c | 296.23$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 26c | 258.17$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 79c | 237.13$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 167.79$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…2b92backed Over | 59c | 125.64$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.13 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 65c | 123.79$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.85 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 69c | 123.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.81 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 80c | 122.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 121.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.01 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 31c | 102.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Under | 69c | 95$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 57c | 84.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.84 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Under | 69c | 83.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Under | 71c | 70.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 38c | 67.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 62.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Under | 69c | 62.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Under | 36c | 62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Under | 68c | 59.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 52c | 45.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 32c | 40.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 68c | 35.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 68c | 35.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbf…d227backed Under | 54c | 32.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 33c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88e…929fbacked Over | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…6d07backed Under | 69c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 516 | 56.6%292 W · 224 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 68c | 20.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Over | 69c | 16.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…d77fbacked Under | 78c | 14.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 142 | 59.2%84 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston AstrosHouston Astros won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Houston AstrosNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.